The bird flu is not a major threat now, but it could become one. Business managers should treat it like any other risk to their business and make appropriate plans.
What Bird Flu Is
The H5N1 virus, known as the avian flu or bird flu, is a disease that currently is:- passed from bird to bird,
- passed to people only with extended, direct contact with infected poultry, and
- a possible source of an epidemic or a pandemic.
What Bird Flu Is Not
The bird flu currently is NOT:- passed from human to human (although one study in August 2007 documented human to human transmission within a family unit),
- an epidemic, or
- an immediate threat to business.
What Is The Business Risk Of Bird Flu
The US government estimates that in a worst case, a bird flu pandemic could kill 2 million people and take away up to forty percent of the work force. The numbers will be similar in other countries. The estimate of 40 percent of the work force being absent is attributed to:- workers getting sick and/or dying,
- workers taking time off to care for others who are sick or dying, and
- workers staying off the job for fear of getting infected by other workers.
In addition to the difficulty a business may encounter related to its own workforce, there is also a risk from other companies during a bird flu epidemic. These other possible risks include:
- delays in delivery of supplies and components because suppliers' workforce is reduced,
- lower quality of delivered material due to lowered expertise in a supplier's workforce,
- reduced demand from purchasers as their business slows or your quality slips, or
- increased demand because your product (like surgical masks) helps people deal with the bird flu epidemic.
How Can Businesses Prepare For A Bird Flu Epidemic?
The business risk of a bird flu epidemic will be the effects of reduced workforce, fluctuations in supply and demand, and the fear and uncertainty surrounding incomplete and inaccurate communications. A business prepares for these risks, as it does for any other risk, by measuring the potential risk and developing a strategy and plans for coping with each potential aspect of the risk. Listed below are some of the potential methods of coping with each category of business risk associated with a bird flu epidemic.Workforce Risk Planning
The biggest expected risks to the workforce are expected to be absences from the office, whether from direct illness, care-giving, or fear of contamination, and the loss of talent and expertise as workers get sick or stay away. How you mitigate those risks depends on the particular circumstances of your company, but some possible remedies you can prepare ahead of time include:-
Enforce a sick leave policy.
If people are sick, they should be required to stay away from the work place and other employees. This reduces the risk of someone who is infected spreading the virus to other workers. It also reduces the risk that someone who is ill from any other disease, and more susceptible to being infected, will be exposed to the virus. - Spread out the workers.
If you have the room, move work stations father apart. The US government says three feet (one meter) is all that's required. As the bird flu epidemic develops, and workers begin to stay away from the workplace, you will be able to spread work stations even further apart. If most of your employees are office workers, this will be easy to do. However, if you manage a physical plant, a machine shop for example, spreading work stations will be more difficult. Start planning now so that you will be ready when necessary. - Encourage telecommuting.
Perhaps the extreme of spreading the work force is to encourage employees to work from home and telecommute. If you are managing people by what they get done, rather than by how long they are at their desk, this is a minor managerial change. Work with your IT and training departments if you have them to begin a pilot telecommuting program now to iron out any potential difficulties. Then you will be better prepared to apply the policy to most of your workforce when appropriate.
