Week 13 - Chief Operating Officer (COO)

April 25, 2001

The field of candidates is getting smaller each week. The person you vote off this week won't get promoted to "Chief Operating Officer". Just like the TV show, you decide who to promote by voting one person out of the company each week.

Play along each week as we look at what it takes to survive the politics and competition in the workplace. Remember, we started at trainee and we'll end up at CEO. Who is not qualified to be COO? Vote that person off.

What's with Ogakor?
Last week I predicted Ogakor would realize how strong Colby is and get rid of him while they had a chance. Failing that, they would go after Tina to take away Colby's power base (alliance). Once again Ogakor surprised me and stuck together, voting as a team to oust Rodger. Now we are down to the final four with Ogakor holding a 3-1 advantage. Will they continue to vote along former tribal lines? Every time I predict the won't, they do. Will this week be different?

They are down to less than a week in the Outback. They have to survive only two more eliminations to have a shot at the million dollars. The remaining members have to be thinking about their end game strategy. That should control how they vote at each of the remaining tribal councils, tempered, of course, by who wins immunity.

Elizabeth
Elizabeth is in real jeopardy. If the former Ogakor members stick together, as they have since the merger of the two tribes, she will be the next to go. She has seen Ogakor in the past turn on itself in a situation like this week when they have more than a one vote advantage. Last time they had a two-vote margin, they voted off Amber; the time before that was Jerri's departure. Elizabeth can only hope that this week Ogakor will continue that trend and get rid of one of their own who they perceive as too strong. Other than that, Elizabeth's only hope is to win immunity this week (which she has never done before) and win it again next week.

Tina
Tina is probably in the best strategic position of anyone right now. If non-tribal alliances start to form, and since there are an even number of contestants left, tie votes are possible. Tina has no previous votes against her, so she would win a tie vote against any of the other three. Her only danger is if all three of the others were to gang up on her. That seems unlikely.

Tina probably now expects to make it to the final pair. She has to be thinking about who she would rather be matched against then. She would lose to Elizabeth. She would beat either of the men. For her, the obvious vote this week is Elizabeth.

Keith
Keith probably thinks he could be the next candidate for Ogakor's self-destruction, following in the shoes of Amber and Jerri. Although I don't think this is true, Keith probably does, so he will be making a greater effort than usual to win the immunity challenge. Based on his history of beating himself in the immunity challenges, I doubt he can pull his off, but it depends on what the producers choose as the challenge for this week.

Keith probably knows he would lose the final vote against either of the women. His only chance, slim as it is, is to go against Colby in the final. Therefore, Keith's smartest vote this week is Tina. He has a better chance of getting Colby to join with him next week to vote off Elizabeth than Tina, so Keith needs to get rid of Tina now.

Colby
Colby is in the same boat as Keith. He would lose the final vote against either of the women. His smartest vote, then, is to get rid of one of them, but which one. Since there is always the possibility that one of the women could win immunity next week, like Kelly did last year, Colby needs to protect against that. While Elizabeth is a bigger threat to Colby in the final pair than is Tina, Tina is a better bet to win the immunity challenge. Remember her performance standing on the poles in the river. She had it won, but chose to give it to Keith. For that reason, Colby's smartest move is to get rid of Tina this week.

If they are smart
The guys both need to vote against Tina. If they do that, Tina votes against Elizabeth, and Elizabeth votes against anyone on Ogakor, Tina will be gone (unless she wins immunity).

My Prediction
I think Ogakor will be short-sighted and stick with their tribal alliance. They will vote off Elizabeth, who is from the other tribe, rather than Tina, who is the bigger threat.

Do you agree? Or not? Join us as we talk about it on the Management Forum.

PREVIOUS EPISODES
Week 12 - Executive Vice President
Week 11 - Group Vice President
Week 10 - Vice President
Week 9 - Assistant Vice President
Week 8 - Division Director
Week 7 - General Manager
Week 6 - Manager #2
Week 5 - Manager
Week 4 - Supervisor #2
Week 3 - Supervisor
Week 2 - Trainee #2
Week 1 - Trainee

John Reh
About.com Guide to Management
http://management.about.com
management.guide@about.com

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