Any wimp can survive the Australian Outback, but only the strongest survive the office.
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Week 11 - Group Vice President (GVP)
April 9, 2001
The field of candidates is getting smaller each week. The person you vote off this week won't get promoted to "Vice President" like everyone else. Just like the TV show, you decide who to promote by voting one person out of the company each week.
Play along each week as we look at what it takes to survive the politics and competition in the workplace. Remember, we started at trainee and we'll end up at CEO. Who is not qualified to be a Group VP? Vote that person off.
Win or Walk?
Last week I predicted that it would be between Colby and Nick. "Whichever of them does NOT win immunity is gone - Colby because he is too strong for the others peace of mind or Nick because he is expendable." Colby won immunity and Nick got voted off.
There were some interesting sub-plots that turned up during the episode, however. I had said Amber would be the swing vote. I expected her to stay and vote with Ogakor, as she has all along, but I raised the possibility that she might be swung to the Kucha side. "I don't think Amber is aware enough to make a move toward Kucha, but ... I can easily see Elizabeth ... approaching Amber and attempting to lure her to the Kucha side." Surprisingly, Amber figured it out on her own and chose to remain with Ogakor. Equally surprising, Elizabeth made no move toward Amber, in the edited version we saw. That may have been due to the fact that Elizabeth was so hungry she wasn't really focused on strategy.
Each week, it seems, I suggest the possibility of the Ogakor alliance breaking down and new relationships forming. Each week, Ogakor surprises me and stays together.
Famine and Flood
Last week, hunger was a major factor in the outcome. Several players, notably Elizabeth, Nick, and Tina simply didn't have the energy to finish the immunity challenge. Rodger and Keith were in a little better shape because they had arrived with more fat reserves. Amber and Colby had the advantage of having won reward challenges that included full meals.
The situation got so bad the producers had to provide more food (the board of directors had to release additional capital). Jeff Probst kept referring to it as a negotiation, but Tina was so hungry she agreed to the food for shelter swap and everyone else went along with it. There was no negotiation. The people like Elizabeth who had the fewest reserves got the weakest, but they will also build back up fastest, because they have the smallest body mass. Elizabeth was too weak last week to compete effectively, but I expect her to be back in form for this week's episode.
The river near the camp has started to rise. There was some concern among the players that it might flood their camp, but they were too weak to consider hauling it up to the top of the hill (as Rodger has suggested in the first place). Now the teasers for this week suggest that the camp not only gets flooded, but gets washed away while the players are at the reward challenge. What effect will that have on the players? What concessions will the producers (board of directors) have to make to keep their people from all giving up and walking away?
Will Ogakor crack?
Ogakor now has a 4-2 advantage over Kucha. They can exercise that numerical advantage to vote off one of their own, as they did with Jerri two weeks ago, or they can stick together. Colby might want to use this occasion to get rid of Keith, but Colby wasn't the one who thought of it when Jerri got booted. He seems content to stay with the original strategy of voting Kucha off one-by-one.
Keith is the only person, other than Colby, who seems to be really playing the game. He must know he can't win against Colby, and this is probably his last chance to get rid of him. If Colby doesn't win immunity again, I expect Keith to make a move to get rid of him.
I think Tina will stick with Colby. That's her best chance to get to the final pair. I also think Colby has won Amber back to the Ogakor team.
Is Kucha doomed?
Kucha is in real danger. I don't think either Rodger or Elizabeth can win the immunity challenge this week if it is a physical test. However, I think the producers are so concerned about the physical strength of the players that they will use a challenge that is more mental and less physical. Even so, if one of them wins immunity, the other one can pretty much expect to get voted off. Their only hope of staying remains finding someone on Ogakor who they can swing to their side.
They won't swing Amber. After all, they voted against her last week. Elizabeth could go after Tina, but she has tried that before and been rebuffed. Tina is going to stick with Colby. That leaves Keith. I think Kucha can get Keith to join them in voting off Colby, who Keith sees as a threat. I don't think they can get Keith to vote against either of the women on the Ogakor side.
My Prediction
I think Colby feels pretty safe right now. He has his perceived Ogakor alliance behind him. He competes for immunity, but doesn't go all out because he feels safe. However, if Colby does not win immunity this week, I expect Keith to team with Elizabeth and Rodger to vote Colby off. It will be a 3-3 tie vote, but Colby will lose the tie-breaker because of the votes cast against him the week Jeff got booted.
If Colby does win immunity, the smart play for Keith would be to go with Kucha anyway and vote off one of Colby's supporters, probably Tina. That would leave Keith, Elizabeth and Rodger with an advantage over Colby and Amber the following week. However, I don't think he will. If Colby is immune, I expect Keith to stay with the Ogakor alliance, which will vote off either Elizabeth or Rodger. Colby would probably rather keep the pretty young girl around rather than the crusty old man, so Rodger is probably in trouble (unless he wins immunity himself).
Colby is out if he doesn't win immunity. Rodger is out if Colby does win immunity. Not the smartest choice for the remaining players, but the one that office politics suggests is the most likely.
Do you agree? Or not? Join us as we talk about it on the Management Forum.
PREVIOUS EPISODES
Week 10 - Vice President
Week 9 - Assistant Vice Prresident
Week 8 - Division Director
Week 7 - General Manager
Week 6 - Manager #2
Week 5 - Manager
Week 4 - Supervisor #2
Week 3 - Supervisor
Week 2 - Trainee #2
Week 1 - Trainee
Want to talk about it? Visit our Management Forum.
John Reh
About.com Guide to Management
http://management.about.com
management.guide@about.com
