Last week I picked the Ogakor "department" to lose another member because they seem to be much more fractured than the Kucha group. "I think that will hurt them in the immunity challenge," I predicted. I was right. They lost and they voted off the woman who fell at the end of the race, apparently costing them the victory.

That didn't surprise me. It has been a common reaction. "You screw up and we will boot you, regardless of your value to the team" has become a standard knee-jerk reaction for these competitions. However, it is a really dumb strategy. It encourages people to not try too hard, because they might exceed their capabilities and fail. That guarantees mediocre performance. Mediocre performance will not win - not in the outback, and not in the office. You have to reward people when they succeed, not punish them when they fail.

I'm going out on a limb here. I predict the Ogakor, will do something that has never been done before on Survivor, they will fall two members behind the other group because they will again lose the immunity challenge. Sometimes it happens, a department is so poorly run that it seems to self-destruct. Ogakor seems to fit that mold. They are beginning to split the group into two competing segments instead of concentrating on beating the Kucha group.